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Posted by JASTIKA on Senin, 14 Desember 2009 , under , , |



Debate among economists about the $700 billion Paulson plan reveals a deep divide between realists and fundamentalists. If economists and policy makers pay attention to how the tension between these two positions plays out in this particular debate, it will help us know how to deal with it in other areas, including development. business online, marketing, tips trick,

The formal, model-based approach of the fundamentalists has contributed much to progress in economic analysis. At key junctures, it has also made important contributions to policy. The challenge is to maintain an intellectual environment that leaves space for a conversation with realists as well. In complicated policy contexts where models don't yet capture key forces, the realists have much to offer both policy makers and fundamentalist modelers. By giving voice to observations that strike realists as obvious but that are not accepted in conversations dominated by fundamentalists, the report by the Commission on Growth and Development could encourage a richer, more open debate about the policy options for poor countries.
Realists and Fundamentalists business online, marketing, tips trick,

The financial crisis provoked three open letters to policy makers. Fundamentalists opposed the plan (here.) Realists supported the plan (here) or supported more discretionary powers for dealing with the crisis without endorsing any specific plan (here.)

A quick look through the lists of economists who signed the various letters shows that the camps do not separate cleanly along the familiar lines of left-versus-right or active-versus-limited government. The key difference lies in the relative weight each side gives to formal models as opposed to judgment.

Fundamentalists have an unswerving faith in models. Policies should always be derived from the best available model. Data should be filtered through a model. If an observation does not fit within the context of a model, it should be excluded from consideration.
Realists are more conscious of the limits of models and more comfortable with a division of labor between the researcher who improves the models and the clinician who makes policy decisions. They recognize that the power of models comes precisely from a commitment to abstraction that filters out potentially important complexity. They believe that useful evidence can accumulate with direct experience as well as through the research process of testing and refining models. They believe that researchers should consider the possibility that the fault lies with the model when its predictions diverge from clinical judgment and that policies should draw on both sources of evidence.

Many times, the confidence fundamentalists have had in abstract models turned out to be well founded and the objections raised by realists who were more focused on details were misplaced. The fundamentalists were right that an airline industry could still function even if airlines could set their own fares; that people could still talk to each other even if they purchased phone service from different companies. The realists pointed to all the complicated details that arise in such markets, details that simple models could not capture. Fundamentalists, correctly, ignored the detail and pushed prescriptions based on the textbook model of competition.

Other times, the models are missing something that is too important. In the study of macroeconomic fluctuations, real business cycle theorists and their descendants, the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium modelers, are the quintessential fundamentalists. Their models are a useful way to make research progress, but in macroeconomic policy making, the great depression, which these models cannot explain, is a decisive data point warning us that the models are incomplete and have to be supplemented by clinical judgment.
The Financial Crisis

In the current crisis, the astonishing and unexpected consequences of the Lehman Brothers bankruptcy should serve as a similarly decisive data point. On the Thursday and Friday before Lehman filed for protection, I was at a conference on the financial crisis. Everyone there expected them to file on Monday. We repeated for each other all the fundamentalist arguments: "Everyone had been given time to prepare." "The courts handle bankruptcies all the time." None of us expected that putting Lehman through a court managed bankruptcy would be much different from arranging a forced sale of Bear Stearns.
We were all wrong. Within days, AIG was insolvent. Runs were developing on Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and the entire money market fund industry. Banks had stopped lending to each other in the Fed Fund market. Rates on Treasuries approached zero.

In response, the Treasury, Fed, and market regulators took drastic steps that the fundamentalists would surely have opposed had there been time for debate. Together, the Fed, Treasury, and the SEC arranged an emergency capital injection into AIG, guaranteed all the liabilities of money market funds, banned short sales of stock in financial firms, and injected massive amounts of liquidity into the banking system. Looking back, it appears that they had enough sand bags to hold back the flood and stop the panic, but perhaps just barely enough.
This is not a data point that can be dismissed as an outlier. It is the kind of observation that should make the fundamentalists just a bit less confident in their models and a bit more willing to listen to the realists who are willing to defer to the policy makers on the front lines.

The Commission's Report
As the report implies (read the overview here), there is a fundamentalist model of developing countries. It has an implied policy prescription captured in the familiar phrase "stabilize, liberalize, privatize."

There is an observation that should do for development what the great depression does for business cycle theory and what the panic in the days after the Lehman bankruptcy should do for finance. The report wisely leads with this fact. Some nations have grown for decades at historically unprecedented rates of growth. China is the extreme case in this set, as the largest economy and the one that has grown fastest, so it naturally attracts the most attention. It is not, however, the only one, and they cannot simply be dismissed as outliers.
The fundamentalist models that would justify the "stabilize, liberalize, privatize" prescription don't generate sustained growth at these rates. These models all emphasize accumulation of human and nonhuman capital, and stocks of inputs can't grow fast enough to generate growth at these rates. It could be, as the fundamentalists sometimes suggest, that these very fast growing economies are privatizing fast enough to get big temporary gains from steps like privatization that remove distortions, but in the cases that the commission point to, rapid growth lasts too long for this to be plausible.

Moreover, if we will listen, as the commission has done, policy makers will tell us what they think is going on. To cite one point taken up in the report, inflows of technology by foreign firms are crucial to rapid growth. With appropriate subsidies, countries can encourage this inflow. An exchange rate regime that makes the country an attractive base for manufacturing goods for export may be an important second-best subsidy that can achieve this goal. Directed credit or other forms of industrial policy may do so as well.
These are not deep points. They have been made before. Of course, they immediately suggest the standard point, which the report makes very clearly: good policy requires good governance. Little of this, however, has been taken seriously enough by mainstream fundamentalist academics. In these circles, discussions of industrial policy or structural exchange rate policies are still disreputable (or perhaps dangerous,) so the possibility that effective governance combined with activist policies can lead faster growth than passive policies is not given serious consideration.business online, marketing, tips trick,



By listening to the realists and taking what they say seriously, the report has the potential to change this equilibrium. Realists and fundamentalists will have much work to do before they agree about whether exchange rate policies or explicit forms of industrial policy work can be beneficial for growth, but at least they begin a conversation that is more productive than the "don't ask, don't tell" status quo.

Fundamentalists versus Realists

Posted by JASTIKA on , under , , |



Debate among economists. business online, marketing, tips trick, about the $700 billion Paulson plan reveals a deep divide between realists and fundamentalists. If economists and policy makers pay attention to how the tension between these two positions plays out in this particular debate, it will help us know how to deal with it in other areas, including development.

The formal, model-based approach of the fundamentalists has contributed much to progress in economic analysis. At key junctures, it has also made important contributions to policy. The challenge is to maintain an intellectual environment that leaves space for a conversation with realists as well. In complicated policy contexts where models don't yet capture key forces, the realists have much to offer both policy makers and fundamentalist modelers. By giving voice to observations that strike realists as obvious but that are not accepted in conversations dominated by fundamentalists, the report by the Commission on Growth and Development could encourage a richer, more open debate about the policy options for poor countries.
Realists and Fundamentalists business online, marketing, tips trick,

The financial crisis provoked three open letters to policy makers. Fundamentalists opposed the plan (here.) Realists supported the plan (here) or supported more discretionary powers for dealing with the crisis without endorsing any specific plan (here.)

A quick look through the lists of economists who signed the various letters shows that the camps do not separate cleanly along the familiar lines of left-versus-right or active-versus-limited government. The key difference lies in the relative weight each side gives to formal models as opposed to judgment.

Fundamentalists have an unswerving faith in models. Policies should always be derived from the best available model. Data should be filtered through a model. If an observation does not fit within the context of a model, it should be excluded from consideration.
Realists are more conscious of the limits of models and more comfortable with a division of labor between the researcher who improves the models and the clinician who makes policy decisions. They recognize that the power of models comes precisely from a commitment to abstraction that filters out potentially important complexity. They believe that useful evidence can accumulate with direct experience as well as through the research process of testing and refining models. They believe that researchers should consider the possibility that the fault lies with the model when its predictions diverge from clinical judgment and that policies should draw on both sources of evidence.

Many times, the confidence fundamentalists have had in abstract models turned out to be well founded and the objections raised by realists who were more focused on details were misplaced. The fundamentalists were right that an airline industry could still function even if airlines could set their own fares; that people could still talk to each other even if they purchased phone service from different companies. The realists pointed to all the complicated details that arise in such markets, details that simple models could not capture. Fundamentalists, correctly, ignored the detail and pushed prescriptions based on the textbook model of competition.

Other times, the models are missing something that is too important. In the study of macroeconomic fluctuations, real business cycle theorists and their descendants, the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium modelers, are the quintessential fundamentalists. Their models are a useful way to make research progress, but in macroeconomic policy making, the great depression, which these models cannot explain, is a decisive data point warning us that the models are incomplete and have to be supplemented by clinical judgment.
The Financial Crisis

In the current crisis, the astonishing and unexpected consequences of the Lehman Brothers bankruptcy should serve as a similarly decisive data point. On the Thursday and Friday before Lehman filed for protection, I was at a conference on the financial crisis. Everyone there expected them to file on Monday. We repeated for each other all the fundamentalist arguments: "Everyone had been given time to prepare." "The courts handle bankruptcies all the time." None of us expected that putting Lehman through a court managed bankruptcy would be much different from arranging a forced sale of Bear Stearns.
We were all wrong. Within days, AIG was insolvent. Runs were developing on Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and the entire money market fund industry. Banks had stopped lending to each other in the Fed Fund market. Rates on Treasuries approached zero.

In response, the Treasury, Fed, and market regulators took drastic steps that the fundamentalists would surely have opposed had there been time for debate. Together, the Fed, Treasury, and the SEC arranged an emergency capital injection into AIG, guaranteed all the liabilities of money market funds, banned short sales of stock in financial firms, and injected massive amounts of liquidity into the banking system. Looking back, it appears that they had enough sand bags to hold back the flood and stop the panic, but perhaps just barely enough.
This is not a data point that can be dismissed as an outlier. It is the kind of observation that should make the fundamentalists just a bit less confident in their models and a bit more willing to listen to the realists who are willing to defer to the policy makers on the front lines.

The Commission's Report
As the report implies (read the overview here), there is a fundamentalist model of developing countries. It has an implied policy prescription captured in the familiar phrase "stabilize, liberalize, privatize."

There is an observation that should do for development what the great depression does for business cycle theory and what the panic in the days after the Lehman bankruptcy should do for finance. The report wisely leads with this fact. Some nations have grown for decades at historically unprecedented rates of growth. China is the extreme case in this set, as the largest economy and the one that has grown fastest, so it naturally attracts the most attention. It is not, however, the only one, and they cannot simply be dismissed as outliers.
The fundamentalist models that would justify the "stabilize, liberalize, privatize" prescription don't generate sustained growth at these rates. These models all emphasize accumulation of human and nonhuman capital, and stocks of inputs can't grow fast enough to generate growth at these rates. It could be, as the fundamentalists sometimes suggest, that these very fast growing economies are privatizing fast enough to get big temporary gains from steps like privatization that remove distortions, but in the cases that the commission point to, rapid growth lasts too long for this to be plausible.

Moreover, if we will listen, as the commission has done, policy makers will tell us what they think is going on. To cite one point taken up in the report, inflows of technology by foreign firms are crucial to rapid growth. With appropriate subsidies, countries can encourage this inflow. An exchange rate regime that makes the country an attractive base for manufacturing goods for export may be an important second-best subsidy that can achieve this goal. Directed credit or other forms of industrial policy may do so as well.
These are not deep points. They have been made before. Of course, they immediately suggest the standard point, which the report makes very clearly: good policy requires good governance. Little of this, however, has been taken seriously enough by mainstream fundamentalist academics. In these circles, discussions of industrial policy or structural exchange rate policies are still disreputable (or perhaps dangerous,) so the possibility that effective governance combined with activist policies can lead faster growth than passive policies is not given serious consideration. business online, marketing, tips trick,



By listening to the realists and taking what they say seriously, the report has the potential to change this equilibrium. Realists and fundamentalists will have much work to do before they agree about whether exchange rate policies or explicit forms of industrial policy work can be beneficial for growth, but at least they begin a conversation that is more productive than the "don't ask, don't tell" status quo.

Why blog on health and growth

Posted by JASTIKA on , under , , |



The book launch for Health and Growth in Brazil occurred in two of the country's biggest cities, Sao Paulo and Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais. business online, marketing, tips trick, In both cities the audience of about 150 spanned academia, government and the private sector. Discussion in both focused on measuring health and the link to growth, and on institutions. Concerns over equity, funding tradeoffs, and the effectiveness and efficiency of service delivery dominated much of the discussion. If early childhood development is so critical to child and adult health, and budgets are flat, where should cuts be made, and who decides? Where economic benefits can be reaped from investments in health care services, issues of who pays across levels of government, and the role of patient contribution, were raised in the context of sustainable financing needs, an important next step in extending the results to policy.business online, marketing, tips trick,

The Development Bank of Minas Gerais, and its president Paulo Paiva, hosted the book launch. Marcus Pestana, State Secretary of Health of Minas Gerais, chaired the session and comments from Cesar Vieira, Technical Consultant of IBEDESS (Brazilian Institute for the Study of the Development of the Health Sector) and Marcelo Gouvea Teixeira, Municipal Secretary of Health for Belo Horizonte, offered comments, touching on the topics noted above. Over 14 media outlets covered the event, including radio and TV stations.

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In Sao Paulo the Fernando Henrique Cardoso Institute hosted the maximum capacity event. Former President Fernando Henrique Cardoso chaired the session, Dr. Alberto Beltrame, Federal Secretary for Health Care commented, along with Andre Medici of the World Bank who extended the implications to Latin America. A third commentator, Geraldo Biasoto, Executive Director of FUNDAP (Sao Paulo State Foundation for Management Development that undertakes policy research on key public policy issues including health), noted the refreshing objectivity in the book and expressed concerns of inadequately substantiated claims that increasing health spending would lead to economic growth. Among attendees was former Minister of Health Adib Jatene who helped to spark a discussion about the impact of health spending as the first rung in tracking the impact of health investments on growth

How to Avoid Writer’s Block and Stay Productive

Posted by JASTIKA on Kamis, 10 Desember 2009 , under , , |



In blogging one of the worst moment you can have is a writer’s block. A condition in which you cannot think of anything to write about thus you cannot produce quality content. A tip that many give is stop what you are writing about and take a break. You can get up and go for a walk and come back to this specific subject a few hours later. You can take a break from your blog entirely for a few days or a week and then come back to it. Some authors even QUIT because of this writer’s block. No matter which option you select from the above list, you will not be able to stay productive.business online, marketing, tips trick,

Did you ever wonder, how do people run more than one blog. They have 5 or 6 blogs and they are all active. Some have a few guest authors, but others are just maintained by this one person. Producing content is a gift, but there is a lot of techniques that goes into it. I will share a technique that I learned from an expert blogger Merlin Mann of 43folders. This technique has worked really well for me.business online, marketing, tips trick,

What you need to do is have more than one topic to write about. So for example if you only have one blog like Balkhis. I would write a post in Advertising Category, For Starters Category, Web Design Resources category and so on. They will all be started with an intro and some ideas, but not finished. So if I start getting frustrated with the Advertising article and I cannot come up with anything, I would simply move onto the Web Design Resources showcase and work on that.

The whole idea about you going outside is taking your mind of a subject, but you can also do that by moving to another subject like I just mentioned. You can also alternate days to write posts on your two blogs. So for example Balkhis and WPBeginner. I would work on a post on Balkhis and WPBeginner at the same time. If I get stuck at a Balkhis post, I will move onto a small plugin review at WPBeginner. Then come back to the Balkhis article later, but the time I was taking a break, I actually wrote another article.

Try this technique and let me know how it works out.

business online, marketing, tips trick,

Business Loan Calculators For Internet Entrepreneurs

Posted by JASTIKA on , under , , |



Your business is online, which presents a bit of a logistics problem in determining cash flow and profits when you want to get a loan. More and more lenders are beginning to figure out that Internet entrepreneurs do have steady income resources, but they aren’t going to be as easily verified through bank statements, as they will be through online pay portals, site visitor counts, traffic, and conversion rates. It’s a whole new field, which makes it hard for starting entrepreneurs to get some understanding of how to present their business to a lender, venture capitalist, or bank to get the best business loan rates when they need money to grow. Luckily, there are a few business calculators out there specifically to help budding online Internet entrepreneurs.


For Email Marketing Campaigns

Starting Internet entrepreneurs may know to build an email contact list and how to contact this list to generate sales. However, they might not have any idea whether the list is efficient or what the expected return on investment is for all the work and attention given your mailing list. Exactly how much money do you intend to make email marketing? This you can figure out with online Email Marketing ROI calculators.

Pay-Per-Click Campaigns

Advertising can mean a large portion of income online, so it pays to try to determine exactly the return on investment of your pay-per-click campaigns. Some new calculators show you how to determine the return on investment on this very common online business practice to generate income. If you look online, you will see a variety of new types of business calculators targeted specifically to the online investor or business owner. They can help a business project earnings, streamline income bottlenecks, and help make a strong case for obtaining a business loan with conventional lenders.

Building on Your Weaknesses

Posted by JASTIKA on , under , , |



Knowing your strengths is one thing, but knowing your weaknesses can be just as important. Everyone is good at something and it is easy to expand in those areas. And the things that you are good at seem to dictate what business you will go into. But alongside of all the strengths you may possess, you are certain to have weaknesses as well. Understanding and learning what you are not so good at can be vital in determining your overall business success.

If you are like most of us, you are probably weakest at the things you do not enjoy doing. You likely tend to focus on your interests and expand in those areas. This causes your weaknesses to get even weaker because those areas get neglected.

As an example let’s say that you have a business involving construction and your weak area revolves around completing paperwork and bookkeeping. Your forte seems more focused on the ‘doing’ end of your business, so you tend to let that uninteresting other part slide. Of course, this can be a big mistake in that you can lose a lot of money and production by not keeping up with the necessary paperwork. Suppose there are accounts from customers that are due and you are not aware of it. Maybe there are bills that you need to pay that are past due. Perhaps you may be missing appointments because they are not properly recorded. All of these can lead to the eventual destruction of your business.

Of course, that is only one example and you may have different problem areas. You may lack certain technical skills that may help you improve your business’ services. You may lack people skills that would allow you to attract more customers. You may not be computer savvy which could allow your business to grow and expand over the internet. There are many other areas where you may need to improve (and this is not taking away from the areas where you are probably an expert).

The first thing you need to do is to acknowledge that these weaknesses occur. Once you get past this hurdle, you can begin to work on the problem areas.

If you really do not want to correct your weaknesses yourself, you can explore other ideas to get around those weak areas. You may be able to hire someone to fill in the gaps. You could hire a bookkeeper, for instance, to take over that chore (if that is your weakness) or hire a ‘techie’ to help you gain computer knowledge or set up a website for you. Using experts to help you can overcome many obstacles.

You can also self-teach yourself in areas where you may need help. There are many self-help books to help you. Or possibly you can take courses, classes or attend seminars to help you get better in your weaker areas.

You may even want to hire a consulting professional who may be able to offer you advice on how you can improve in your weak areas. Sometimes they may be able to direct you towards a simpler solution in your problem area. With an easier way to do the chore in your weak area, you may be able to save time or it may not seem like such a daunting task after all.

Whatever you do, it is never a good idea to ignore the task you are weakest in. This could lead to problems in the efficient running of your business. Not only would the task be neglected, but you could lose money which could lead to the eventual downfall of your business. And, without your business running smoothly, you also may lose incentive and excitement for your business which again could lead to its demise. It is a good idea to try to focus more on your weaknesses and find ways to improve in those areas.

Best Dog Care Buying Guide

Posted by JASTIKA on , under , , |



Dog is one of the best pet that you can have. Therefore, you need to give it best treatment and care, so it can always happy, healthy and can be a good friend for you. But, to find best guide to get best treatment and need of your dog, maybe is one difficult task to finish. But, with the help from internet, that would be easy.
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You can visit Shopwiki.co.uk, to find best information and guide about how to give your dog best treatment, care and everything that your dog need every day. Also, you can find the best buying guide for your dog need here. Here you can find best Dog Bowls and Feeders information. This information will give you best offer with best price for your dog food need. If you want to give your dog best toys, here you also can find the information about Dog Toys. If you want to move to new place and you want to put your dog in a safe place in journey, here you can get best Dog Transport information and buying guide.business online, marketing, tips trick,

All of Dog Care guide and information that your dog need is provided here. So, you just need visit this website, read all the information here and you can get the best offer for your dog need. So, visit now.business online, marketing, tips trick,

Evaluation of the Broadband Applications Network

Posted by JASTIKA on Jumat, 04 Desember 2009 , under , , |



The benefits of locally-funded computer business online science research to the average African is questionable, as some believe that academic computer science researchers are indulging in projects which are so far divorced from ground level needs that they are wholly esoteric in nature. This issue is further compounded by a skills shortage in the ICT sector in Africa, because there are few people around who can help adapt the outcomes of such research to local challenges.

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has recognised that computer science research in Africa should be more needs-driven, and aims to address this issue by conducting research that connects better to the community or affects ICT policy-making processes. In particular, BANG explores new ideas and methodologies for improving ICT access for people in under-serviced areas and for people with hearing difficulties. BANG involves a number of post-graduate research projects at the University of the marketing (UWM), with strong ties to a small research group at the University marketing (UWM). The mission marketing (UWM) is to conduct research, using broadband technologies, which either responds to the needs of the community or could be used to influence ICT policy-making.

Bridges.org has been engaged to conduct an independent evaluation of the business online, based on its experience working at the intersection of technology, policy and development. The intention is to help BANG develop a set of criteria for an academic policy that will frame current and new BANG projects in the context of community implementation and/or policy recommendations. The overall evaluation aims to review work conducted by the UCT and UWC students within the context of BANG, over a two-year period. The evaluation has the following objectives:

* To help the BANG initiative shape the relationship between the technical goals of the sub-projects and its goals for community involvement and influence on ICT policy;
* To develop a set of criteria that will be the basis for an academic policy to guide existing and new computer science projects to link with community implementation and/or lead to policy recommendations;
* To suggest how the practical work of the BANG projects can be leveraged to influence the policy making processes (and to help BANG navigate these processes as appropriate);
* To suggest ways that BANG could better connect with on-going projects that may need the technologies BANG deals with, or an environment in to which they could integrate; and
* To help BANG express their ideas in terms understandable to the layman in order that their work may become known outside of academia.

Bridges.org is documenting and evaluating the business online using two tools. First, the bridges.org Real Access evaluation criteria are used to look beyond computers and connections and consider whether and how the BANG project is succeeding in bringing Real Access, and other benefits, to the communities involved. The evaluation considers twelve interrelated factors that affect whether people have Real Access to technology. Second, Bridges.org uses its 8 Habits of Highly Effective ICT-Enabled Development Initiatives to gauge whether and how the BANG project is making a Real Impact on people's lives by looking through the lens of basic best practice guidelines for successful initiatives.

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and its constituent projects, bridges.org found a number of issues that need to be addressed before the group can formulate a system for meeting its goals. Perhaps most importantly there is a lack of cohesion within the group due to little communication between students, and a lack of understanding on the part of the students, and possibly co-supervisors, as to the aims of BANG and how their research fits in to it. Bridges.org makes recommendations to BANG for addressing the key issues and invites feedback from the tips trick them frame their next steps.

Evaluation of the Broadband Applications Network

Posted by JASTIKA on , under , , |



business online marketing tips trick is comprised of students pursuing Masters and PhD studies in computer science at the University of Cape Town (UCT) and University of the Western Cape (UWC). Bridges.org was asked to conduct an independent evaluation of the BANG project and assist the group with project planning. The evaluation exercise aimed to help the group realise its goals of linking computer science with community needs and government policy-making. The end result would be an academic policy to help students frame future computer science projects in the context of community implementation and/or policy recommendations.

In the first phase of the evaluation, the bridges.org evaluation criteria were considered in the context of BANG projects and a set of questions applicable to the group's research was compiled. These questions were used as a framework for the second phase evaluation. A two-part questionnaire encouraged the students to think about their research in terms of its connections to real community needs and/or effects on ICT policy-making, and to determine how they can apply best practice standards in their projects. Responses were judged on the degree to which the student addressed, or at least considered, these criteria in planning and implementing their projects. marketing tips

The results highlighted a dichotomy between those projects designed at inception to address a technological need in the community, which scored highest, and those that are more technical in nature. During a workshop held to discuss the evaluation findings, the group acknowledged that more help was required for the technical projects, to bridge between their research and using ICT for development. Further, it was suggested that for the next phase, students broaden their thinking around Real Access and describe their findings more descriptively.tips trick